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Posts Tagged ‘scepticism’

Perhaps it’s not about the Skeptic Schism

Posted by Don McLenaghen on September 8, 2012

I was planning to write about my thoughts on what I saw as the exclusionary nature of A+ when I heard about the self-imposed digital exile of Jen. I think I had a bit of an epiphany. I no longer saw the issue in the narrowly defined bands of skepticism, atheism or even feminism (although those are all involved) but in terms of bullying.

As a member of the LGBT community and someone who was continually the victim of both physical and psychological bullying at school in the late 70s/early 80s…in a time and place where people saw “fags” as unnatural perverts. Where bullying was seen as an opportunity for “character building” …if you were a REAL man you would stand up to your bully and be a better person for it…the reality is shittier than that. But I survived with ‘minimal’ emotional scaring, I guess.

From that perspective I look at what has happened to the Skeptic Movement in a new way. It is almost impossible for someone who has not been subjected to this abuse to understand…it is literally beyond their conception. Bullying is not about points of view, agenda or the ‘future’ of anything. It is only about power and abuse!

Conversely, the victim will often focus on the ‘proximal’ cause (race, gender, sexual orientation, etc.) as the “BIG” problem to addressed, missing the fundamental issue – The Bullying. The bully did not act because I was gay…there were lots of people who knew and did not bully. They acted because there are people in our society who wish to hurt…who feed on pain. My identity was only the proximal cause; their identity was the fundamental cause.

Returning to the supposed ‘schism’ in the community; the problem is not how we see ‘atheism’ or skepticism in the future; that is a disagreement in views. The issues articulated by the founders of the schism are not goals but process…not an argument of policy but the way those disagreements are conducted.

The fundamental problem Jen and those subjected to abuse was not whether people agreed or disagreed that skepticism/atheism should focus of social justice or feminism…there is space for debate there. The problem was when these issues were raised some people chose not to debate but to bully; the meeting of logical arguments with violent epithets and threats. Sadly, this is a character of the wider society and skeptics are not immune. Complicating and amplifying this problem is the internet.

One of the mixed blessings of the internet is to give voice to all the “little” crimes of bullying that would have remained isolated (and often unreported). Providing those victims the opportunity to express and share their pain…to find solace and solidarity in a wider community……to find some justice (of a sort) by bringing both the crime and the ‘criminal’ to public attention.

However, it has also provided a (usually anonymous) way for bullies from around the world find new victims. It not only united the victims but also the victimizers. Where in the past a bully was limited to their local community; the digital bully has the entire web-o-sphere to prowl for prey.

There is not a group/forum/community that is ‘online’ that has not been subjected to trolling…members singled out for persecution by this vicious hatred. There are few people who have not, in the heat of an argument with the ‘digital distance’ the web provides articulate a thought that was not in some way hurtful, overly forceful or simply ill-stated.

If the skeptical community adopts the practical actions proposed by some as anti-bullying there may be better purchase by the community as a whole; a greater recognition that it is not the content of the message but how those delivering the message are being treated.

This is where people’s honest difference of opinion about issues surrounding ‘proximal’ causes can muddy the water regarding the fundamental cause. Someone might think “I don’t think feminist point number ‘x’ is important, therefore I can’t see why anyone (pro or con) could get violently upset”. We can forget bullies are not motivated by issues; issues are simply excuses for their vile form of self-gratification.

This explains why I think that A+ (as originally envisioned) will not address this problem because it is NOT fundamentally a problem about the issues but a problem with bullying. If people think that the A+ forms/conferences will not be trolled, they are delusional. If they think that bullying over other issues will not occur, they are too optimistic. It may be libertarians threatening socialist…people who lack a rational argument…people who feel powerful by hurting others…people who confuse fame with infamy will rear their ugly head. Harassment is the symptom, bullying is the disease.

If one looks at some of the rhetoric that some of the ‘supporters’ of the A+ movement has said about those deemed enemies…well, bullying is bullying regardless the cause.

One would think harassment is simple enough, but when we add “sexual’ to that, about half the population sadly cannot (truly) relate…where as everyone of every ilk has at least once in their lives been the victim of bullying. It offers a distance between one’s honest disagreement with an idea and the treatment of the person presenting that idea.

I think this provides a framework for those who fear that other attempts to ‘police’ the behavior of the community will lead to a suppression of ideas…to witch-hunts or inquisitions. Anti-bullying campaigns do not limit the spectrum of debate but only the conduct by which such debate is executed.

Let me give three practical examples (these are distinctions open for debate).

Someone, let’s make it the ‘old white male’, shouts out at a forum at a participant . The intent of this is to bully the speaker into silence. This act would be judged under anti-bullying rules. It is unacceptable and subject to ejection. No one has a right to bully.

Someone, a different “old white male”, is at the bar and tells a ‘joke’ about . Here the intent is to be funny and not to bully. This act should be judged by social norms…it should be brought to his attention that such joke are hurtful and continuation of telling them may lead to social isolation but not “ejection” from the movement. People have a right to be a jerk.

Our last “old white male” is at the forum like our first example. There he expresses that affirmative action is ‘reverse-discrimination’ and we should abandon it. Now, this is out dated thinking and with better education he may learn the error of his judgment; that said he is entitled to his views and should not be shunned from the community. We all have a right to our opinions, provided our expression of them does not harm others.

The whole point of skepticism is to education; how can that be done if we only accept into our movement people who already agree with our views 100%. That is why I was against the ‘splintering’ action of A+ while support the ‘practical actions’ for the skeptical movement and the need to think about where skepticism will be in the future.

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4th Wave Skepticism – Foundations – Part 1

Posted by Don McLenaghen on September 4, 2012

There has been a lot of talk thrown around lately about atheism, skepticism, humanism, socialism….etc. There have been words attached like wave, plus…etc. Before moving forward we should first come to an understanding as to what these terms mean.  Some will disagree with my interpretation of these movements and that’s okay. The intent of this post is to ensure what it will be clear what I mean when I use these terms and the conversation can continue.

Atheism is a belief system about the existence or non-existence of supernatural divine entities. One can be an atheist simply because you have never been exposed to any ‘religion’. Equally you could be agnostic (weak atheism) because you think some questions are beyond certainty of knowledge and best left answered as “I don’t know”.

Some will be atheist because of a contradiction of theory and practice; I am sure a number of Catholics (for example) lost their faith because they could not reconcile a loving god/church and pedophilic priests…I think I would count Ayaan Hirsi Ali (one of our ‘Awful Atheist’ from an Episode #177) in this category.

And of course, there are those who look at the evidence and conclude that there is no scientific or ‘weight of evidence’ to believe. Now of course you could be an atheist for several or all of these reasons.

Skepticism is a theory of knowledge. It is not so much a belief system in itself but a mechanism for selecting ‘beliefs/truths/fact’. The original philosophical skeptics questioned if knowledgeable humans were capable of making truth claims – the matrix argument. Philosophical skepticism is based on strong logical foundations. Although the strongest argument against certainty, is also the least useful; in a pragmatic sense we must at some point bite the bullet and assert SOMETHING and build a picture of the world upon this.

From here you get what I would call theistic or rational skeptics; those are the people like Thomas Aquinas and Descartes who moved beyond the ancient skeptics. They accepted the logic of the ancients but acknowledged that a rejection of any knowledge seemed irrational. Choosing to take the pragmatic route; they needed to add to their world foundation a rational rock upon which to build knowledge. Aquinas and Descartes chose god as their foundation.

It was not really until Francis Bacon and the scientific revolution of the enlightenment, that scientific skepticism became possible.  Scientific skepticism has as its foundation the scientific method. When combined with logic and reason we get a powerful self-correcting tool to filter competing ideas about the world around us.

 

Humanism is a philosophy about how we should treat ourselves and our fellow humans. Its foundations are in Epicureanism; which essentially said humans are the best measure of ‘good’ and that through moderation and education we become the best judges of ‘good’.  There is the rejection of the supernatural or ‘other worldly’ as our masters. Humanism in the Renaissance could be compatible with religious beliefs; modern Secular Humanism seems to pre-supposed atheism (although belief in an impersonal deity may be possible).

Secular Humanism attempts to move beyond atheism and provide an ethical framework for a ‘post-religious’ society. In this context it tends to focus more on the Secular in an effort to remove religion from the public forum. In this form, Humanists often find themselves allied with Unitarians and other ‘secular’ religious movements who see faith as a personal and not a public exercise.

Socialism is the belief that strength and prosperity are more completely attained through social cooperation. Socialist to this day come from all points of the ‘religious’ spectrum. Unlike the other ‘isms’ we have discussed, Socialism is not individualistic…it re-supposes a ‘group-think’ attitude. One can be individualistically an atheist, skeptic and even humanist; one cannot be a singular and socialist (that would be libertarian).

Okay, but what about ‘waves’ and such?

Well, this post seemed too long, so I will continue my analysis in part 2 later this week.

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4th wave Skepticism – a prequel

Posted by Don McLenaghen on August 22, 2012

There has been growing talk recently about attempting to evolve the skeptical movement to something like fourth wave skepticism (number not important here). First, I should point out that, in my humble opinion, it’s not (or should not be) 4th wave atheism or Atheism+. I will explain why in a future post, for the moment; grant me your indulgence.

I think 4th wave skepticism is a great idea but, are we ready for it?

The premise behind 4th wave skepticism is to move beyond the past incarnation of the movement and to achieve a new plateau of customs/standards/norms and new goals/objectives/ideals. Of course this does not mean we forget the struggles of the past, nor imply that the fourth wave is ‘better’ or ‘more important’ than the other wave, merely that it is the natural evolution of a movement.

That said, are we ready?

I think it’s never too early to start to discuss such quaesitus-utopia but to ‘move on’ implies that we have achieved the goals of 3rd wave skepticism…that the issues with the 3rd wave have been addressed.

Now, I do not say this dismissively…nor do I mean to imply that once ‘addressed’ such issues should be forgotten, ignored or side-lined; often on the road to utopia (a valuable journey even if the ultimate destination is ever-changing) we must carry the baggage of past battles. And for what I say next, I do not mean to be dismissive nor condescending; to move to the 4th wave we must ‘put behind us’ the controversies of racism, sexism and the other ‘isms’ that have so plagued the 3rd wave.

WAIT! I am not saying that we ignore, dismiss nor diminish the importance of these struggles. They are integral to the long-term health and existence of the movements…they help define the movement. That in the 4th wave, the movement must be able to say that we have learned to deal with those who are sexist…we have eliminated the taint of racism…we have created mechanism to police the inequalities that has so beleaguered great movements in the past.

To claim that our movement is ready for the 4th wave, whatever that may be, we are saying we have moved beyond paternalism/feminism… white/coloured… gay/straight… rich/poor… entitles/disenfranchised; that the movement is no longer at war with itself on these fundamental issues. I am not sure we have reached this point.

Do not get me wrong, I am not saying that we must be a unified ideological singularity. There will be a whole new set of issues to be dealt with by the 4th wave. What I am implying is that the next set of issues the movement needs to address can only truly be debate once we have moved past the internally destructive…the ad hominem de-humanizing abusive dissention that has come to the forefront of our movement.

Before we can address these external issues we must be internally united on equality and value of those who are members of the movement regardless of their background or view point. A feminist cannot talk effectively to a misogynist…a white supremacist cannot see as equal a black panther. And NO I am not saying these ‘dichotomies’ are equivalent. I think most feminist are rational, while most misogynist are dogmatic (although both may exist in each camp).

If we are to really move to the 4th wave…if our movement is to evolve, we must first address these issues that have proven to be so divisive.

Sadly, I do not think we have yet finished with the 3rd wave. To use the analysis of Jen McCreight, I think we still have great issues of internal inequality…that is regardless of our opinions of the future of the movement; many in our movement do not even accept the idea that opinions of members of the movement should be heard as equals.

Let me be a little rude and more blunt…I think any talk about moving the skeptic community to a next stage is premature in the light that some people believe if they show up at a skeptical convention they will be raped while others think if they DO show up ‘a little rape’ might set them right. I accept the fears/concerns of women in the movement (sometimes stated but genuinely believed) while also accepting that there are men who would see the worst of these ‘fears’ as normal/traditional behaviour or ‘corrective’ (the classic and horrific – ‘they were asking for it’).

I think it is true that there are extremist on both sides…that the ‘general’ population is ‘generally’ rational…however; it is also true that an ‘extremist’ feminist may create an ‘up-roar’ in the community while an ‘extremist’ misogamist (to use a polite term) could (realistically) result in rape or worse. It is a traditional case of two but unequal sides to an ‘argument’. I, as a man from an older generation, do not think I can trust my ‘gut’ to make judgments on this issue. Until equality is achieved; I think that those who in the disadvantaged position get the ‘commanding heights’ of the argument.

I plan to continue this article on the idea of 4th wave skepticism because I think planning for the next stage of our movement’s evolution is important. That said; I also think it is too early to make any claims that we are ready to make such a transition. Ironically enough; this segment is intended as a rebuttal (vis-à-vis timing) to Blog Hag’s call to ‘move on’ (in a positive way) while I acknowledge that she (and those she represents) and those who are subjected by the bigotry/inequality/injustice by the current skeptic community, are the ones who are to tell me when we are ready to ‘move on’ to the 4th wave.

 

(Update – I noted the Jen has  commented more on the whole A+ that is not reflected here, but it should come up in the next instalment)

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Skepticism and gender inequality

Posted by Don McLenaghen on June 2, 2012

I tread lightly into this ‘issue’. And by issue I don’t mean sexism…the skeptic community is part of a larger society that IS sexist (although attempting to resolve that situation). We may have hoped to avoid the gender issues all social movements in history have faced but alas we are but flawed humans in that effort.

That said, we should use this as an exercise of our skeptic tool kit. To my thinking there are a few issues at play (I make to pretence to solve but to define).

Unlikely to men, feels real to women

First with regards to who feels offended or unsafe; that call can only be made by the ‘experiencer’. That they feel this way is irrefutable. As skeptics we often boast that our beliefs follow where the evidence leads. When we apply the scientific method to social and cultural issues it becomes harder, but not impossible, to find where evidence lies. With regards to ‘feelings’…like pain…it is impossible, logically impossible, to state that one does not feel what one feels.

Second, do the facts on the ground support an empirical support for such feelings? There are many factors that can be used:

a)    Number of reported incidences and ‘convicted’ offenders

  1. Do we have hard numbers?
  2. If not, why not? And when will we?

b)    Degree of anecdotal evidence

  1. Again, perceived threat is a real threat to the perceiver, so I don’t mean to shrug off this type of evidence as skeptics often do.
  2. That said, does the anecdotal evidence correlate with the empirical evidence?

c)    To what degree does awareness factor into perception?

  1. As our community becomes more aware there is a problem, people become both more willing to report incidences and more sensitive to others actions. What may have been seen as harmless 5 yrs ago is now perceived as inappropriate.
    (I suspect this accounts for the increased incidences of ‘innocent’ inappropriate behaviour)
  2. This works both ways, hostility (from men towards women) increases if they feel threatened or vilified. This can help reduce ‘inappropriate’ behaviour but at the expense of outright hostility. I am not defending this hostility but we must be aware of the issues before we can resolve them.
    (I also suspect this accounts for the increased severity of hostile acts towards those perceived as ‘leaders’ of the equality movement)

Where much debate arises is when we ask if these feelings expressed correlated with the evidence. Many will dismiss isolated acts of ‘anomalies’ and they may be, but to make that call we must accumulate independent evidence. Even if empirical evidence is lacking, that only points to another issue…that these feelings are symptoms of other ailments. I, however, will assume the evidence supports such feelings; where does that take us?

Third; do people have agendas? We ALL do to a degree. It is not wrong that some women wish to forward a ‘pro-feminist’ agenda…as already stated we do live in a society that is unequal.  There are a number (majority?) of men who support (genuinely or out of guilt) the cause of equality. I have always been a strong and ardent supporter of equality.

Some have the agenda to maintain the status quo, not necessarily to ensure male dominance but we are more comfortable (at least men in this situation) with what we know…it’s predictable. These people are not ‘evil’ or even ‘wrong’; mostly they are insecure. They have yet to understand or see the evidence that will allow them to accept change. Like those who complain about the ‘new atheist’ movement as “turning people off”; we need a full spectrum approach. We need the hard liners to ensure the issue is not swept under the rug. We need the moderates who will implement change and we even need the ‘soft sellers’ who will win over those ‘set in their ways.

Some and I suspect (hope?) a few are truly misogynistic and think women should be second class or “put on a pedestal”. These are the dogmatic; and I suspect there is dogma on both sides currently the male side has the upper hand. As good skeptics we have little patience for dogma. There is a cautionary tale to be learned from the atheists. There are a number of people who are ‘atheists’ who use this rational issue to promote racist dogma.

The real question, is not do people have or want to promote agendas, but

i.    What are they trying to promote?

ii.    Is that a good thing or bad?

iii.    How representative is it of their constituency? Of the community as a whole?

As good skeptics, we know how often ad hominem attacks, appeals to emotion, appeals to tradition have led to ‘bad thinking’…to irrational actions. What is needed is to be as unbiased as possible when attempting to identify the real question to be asked. Only when we have found the right question(s) can we begin to find a solution.

Fourth, given the issues now (?) identified, what is the best course of action?

With regards to ensure perception and actual senses of security and equality; what can be done to attain this state? I think there has been a lot said about this by the female skeptic community. Some of it is ‘loud’, some of it is accompanied by ‘venting’, and a lot is I suspect associated with frustration. However, there is at the heart of it genuine issues that need to be addressed; issues that should not be diverted to debates over personalities or style.

With regards to those who are insensitive or uneducated, how best do we raise awareness and educate without vilifying innocence? From the side of the less-equal, it is easy (and not necessarily unjustified) to say anyone who resists movements to equality are actively or passively part of the problem. Agreed but to vilify or ‘shout down’; to start a ‘witch-hunt’ or ‘blacklist’ of people requires a larger degree of guilt. I grew up in a time and a place where racial ‘jokes’ were common place. They were not (by my generation) meant to as “real” commentary; although I suspect those who were the subjects of such jokes did not think them funny. However, there was no intent (by most) to be racist…through education and enhanced sensitivity these became (largely) artifacts of the past.

The action was not to attack those who ‘innocently’ transgressed but to educate and ensure the community reinforced this new social meme. Skeptics believe the best way to shed light on darkness is not to beat it down but to enlighten it through education. That most people who are ‘bad thinkers’ are so out of ignorance and tradition…that given evidence and logic they will come around to reason.

With regards to those who do not care or are outright antithetical to the issues; what should we do as a community to ‘deal with them’? I suspect it a fuzzy grey gradient from uneducated to complacent to hostile. I have just counselled patience and reasonableness; however there are those in our community who are not ‘innocent’ but aggressive and hostile. We should not be quick to judge but once judgement has passed we should not hesitant to condemn and ‘deal with’.

With luck in this thought experiment we have made progress. Given the issues identified and some courses of action, who needs to do what?

Those who are attempting equality must also accept the inertia to change and not be overly hostile or ‘quick to judge’ others actions. Of course this does not mean relent, retreat or slow down but realize that some of those who will be run over are innocent. It is the sad fate of those who lack equality that they are often called upon to have more patience though they have the greater cause for haste.

I made reference to judgement, what would be the criteria of conviction so as to ensure the ‘innocent’ are not unjustly harmed while still ensuring the ‘safety’ of the community as a whole? Who stands in judgement? What should constitute a mechanism of appeal that would be fair to the accused while not re-victimizing the offended? What would constitute rehabilitation? How would one who professed rehabilitation be re-admitted into the community?

I understand that some of these questions are not simple, binary or (often) enforceable; but there is value in the exercise to try and define them. All involved would then have a better idea as to what ‘explicitly’ is expected and what are the possible repercussions. Far too often we assume that ‘any one should know what appropriate behaviour is’. That is obviously not the case. We all believe that the majority of the cases of inappropriate behaviour were not done maliciously. A man who wishes to curry favour with a possible ‘partner’ (however that is defined) does not start by ‘offending’ them. Re-education, especially in the light of an unenlightened cultural background, will be slow and a presumption of ignorance should be our default assumptions until actions prove otherwise. We are attempting to create a better world not wreak vengeance on the past.

Those in dominance are the ones who must be most willing to change. They must also accept that they are not the ones best to judge IF there is a problem; however no solution will be achieved without their cooperation. We must accept that in the cause of change innocents will fall victim to unjust condemnation. As I have counselled patience to those currently wanting, so must the dominant group be patient when accused. Far too long we have taken comfort in our position… insensitive when we have trodden on the rights of others…unconcerned to injustices wrought by our collective hand. When balancing scales, many tribulations will occur but patience and stalwartly forward we must persist.

It is hard for the dominate group to stand back and let others take the lead. Part of being dominate is being in control; however to attain equality there must be a willingness to give that up. It requires a leap of faith of sorts to accept that others may know better than we.

Much as “white people” have to accept ‘reverse discrimination” (i.e. affirmative action) to balance the social scales with ‘non-whites’, so must the male community accept that not only must we be willing to give up the status quo, but further we will be called upon to do more than ‘our fair share’ because we have not been doing our share for quite some time. You cannot say “Well, okay we will now all be treated equally” because that ignores both the systemic inequality as well as those inequalities that ‘seep in’ from the outside society.

What is the endgame?

It may be utopian but when we say ‘safe environment’, ‘equality’, and the ‘absence of a hostile environment’…what ultimately, does that mean? It may be easy to say that it’s obvious, but objective reality proves that wrong.

This is an educational process as well as a cultural one. We may not nor can ever achieve utopia but at least we will have a better idea the roads we all travel. Elsewise I fear a community that lacks insight will be split and diminished as a consequence.

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Skeptic Radar – Market Place

Posted by Don McLenaghen on February 6, 2011

During a previous episode of RFT, I made a comment about the CBC consumer advocacy show Market Place and a segment they did about water purifier scams (“Clean water, Dirty tricks”). I had ‘lost my voice’ at the time I had made these comments and wanted clarify my points more clearly now.

First, I like Market Place in general and thought their segment on the water filter scams informative

Authority can be misguided

and well done. I did want to make the point that as good skeptics we should not fall into complacency even when the source of info is from an authority we respect and thought this episode an opportunity to help illuminate and educate skeptics on what to keep your eyes open for when watching ANY documentary.

To make this point I noted two skeptic weaknesses – precipitates and chlorination.

The water trick in action...looks impressive to the uneducated eye

They showed that purification sellers use a chemical “trick” to make water seem dirtier than it “really” was. Now it was true that the claims of health risks made by the sellers were horribly over stated but… Yes, the skeptic “BUT”…where they completely baseless? Market Place explained that normal water has minerals dissolved into it AND that these minerals are harmless. Now I accept as uncontroversial the first part but the second part MAY have been an over generalization. It is possible, depending on the water source and distribution, that some of the precipitate could have been deleterious to health (such as arsenic or cadmium both of which are harmful). They could have easily been ‘skeptic proof’ by adding the statement akin to “Now unless there is a special reason to suspect these precipitates (such as unexplained health ailments) most people should not worry about them and definitely not the cause for extreme panic the water seller made it sound”

Some deaths prevented thanks to chlorination

Modern municipal filtration processes

The other item that twitched my skeptic radar was the line about chlorination.  Water agents over stated the dangers of chlorine used as a disinfectant by municipal purification plants. This was countered by Market Place stating that chlorine at the municipal level was necessary to kill bacterial agents, which is true. However, I was not convinced that once the water hits your taps the same risks of infection are present; that de-chlorinating my water at the tap posed the same health risks as not chlorinating at the plant. Further, they missed the point that a badly maintained home filtration system can itself be a bastion for “toxic” bacteria.

Again, love Market Place but thought this episode had some good skeptic teaching points.

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A taxing issue

Posted by Don McLenaghen on November 17, 2010

In the shadow of the elections victories of the Tea Party in the US election and the recent announcement of our own Campbell government here in BC to both cut income taxes while implementing a user fee for hospital stays, I thought it would be educational to take a sceptical look at taxes and in particular tax breaks.

Taxes have been a widely used tool by governments to punish ‘sin’ (in the form of alcohol and tobacco taxes) and to promote investment (in the form of tax holidays or credits like the capital gains tax). I am not going to get too partisan here. There are valid arguments on all sides about what are appropriate taxes and at what level those taxes should be – that is a discussion for a different day and perhaps a different show. What I would like to investigate here are two things: first that cutting taxes increases tax revenue (this was called Voodoo economics by G. Bush Sr., trickle-down economics by others but economist refer to this broadly as supply-side economics) and second that tax cuts are always good.

I shall address the former first. For those of us who had access to an US media source (or those who can remember any recent political campaign) every politician was promising to cut taxes; when asked how they would pay for these tax cuts, they would either respond by saying tax cuts cost nothing or they said they will reduce spending…when asked what spending, they would say something like “that fat in the system” or “improved efficiencies” – IE they would not cut anything. For example they often say they will cut “ear-marks’, but this only accounts for $3 billion out of a budget of $3.6+ trillion (with a deficit of $1.7 trillion)…or 0.08% of budget (0.17%  of deficit).

It seems popular among voters across the political spectrum. However, the recent dual announcements of our local government show the reality of the situation. Campbell announces a popular across the board tax cut of 15%. This applies to rich and poor alike (although not equally, but again that’s a different show*). This equates to a loss of over half a billion dollars a year. That is money the government will not have to provide services…like hospital beds. The government also recently announced a user fee on hospital rooms amounting to over $200 a week. Who is going to make up for the loss in tax revenues? The sick.

Environics Poll 2007

Now don’t get me wrong, maybe we are all happy with that, but most people when asked the question do they want to cut public spending (especially healthcare), they say no…in fact it is one of the few areas people show an innate socialist tendency.

Just to put the two into perspective, the median family will save about $350 a year in taxes.  The average hospital stay for an individual is 3-10 days (depending largely on age)…that’s a fee cost of $87 to $290 (and for those of you who say “well most people will not be in hospital that long” just remember that makes the fee even more onerous because it WILL effect most those who are suffering most and likely least like to afford it).

Okay, my math may be a little dodgy (mainly due to the lack of accurate numbers for ‘average hospital’ stay or the myriad of different income/fee/taxes an individual will pay) but the point should still be obvious. The hospital fee was not to pay for the tax cut but add in the added cost of medical insurance premiums[1], camping fees[2], transit fees[3], licence fees[4], tuition[5] and so on you will get there. (for those of us old enough, we remember when ‘user fee’ was a dirty word and the fees that did exist were token…not any more).

Cost of Bush's tax cuts

The point I am getting at, is if we want social services we have to pay for them as a society. That means when someone yells “tax cuts” remember they are also saying “cut services”. Maybe something you are comfortable with…maybe not but that is the reality of it. I was going to go on to talk about the wisdom of providing robust social services but that would be straying perhaps outside the bound of a sceptic podcast so we shall stop here and address the second point.

Many have claimed, largely Republicans and Monetarists, that cutting taxes increases tax revenue. On the surface this sounds paradoxical; however there is a shred of logic to be found. The idea, goes that if you cut taxes, those who have more money will invest in the economy, the economy grows, from this larger tax base you collect more absolute dollars even though the rate is lower. The idea works in reverse as well; increasing the tax rate will cause a contraction of the economy and a reduction in absolute dollars.

Often the example of the Reagan Revolution is used to prove this point…i.e. that it works in practice. However this is a flawed claim. As many modern economists have shown[6], including noble prize winner Paul Klugmen, the Reagan tax cuts did not improve the US economy and actually made government finances worse.

It is true the US economy grew fast from 1983-89 however this is in contrast to the miasma of the severe recession of 81-2. Capitalist markets are cyclical, and this was not an unusual recovery. Private savings, something supply-side economics assumes from the masses to provide the capital for investment, continues to decline throughout the decade (7.8->4.8%). Meaning, the money for the recovery, as it was, came from spending savings and increasing personal debt. Finally, this trend is echoed in the US budget; when Reagan came to office the US debt as a % of GDP was 32.5%, when Bush Sr. left it was 66.1%. Clinton, who raised taxes, brought the rate down to 56.4%. The same happened in Canada, when we increased taxes in the 90’s and went from the ‘basket-case’ nation to arguably the country with the most stable finances.

Lastly, the multiplier effect. Not all tax cuts are equal. Tax cuts cost money; those who claim that it is not should ‘not’ collect their next pay-check and see if it costs them money. So, the current desire of governments everywhere is stimulus. When the government (or anyone really) spends money it has what is called, a multiplier effect on the economy; that is for every “Y” dollars spent it generates Y*x (or Y’) in the economy. So, if I give you a dollar and you burn it, which generates no activity in the economy, in fact it removes the dollar from circulation so has a negative multiplier effect. Now most people will spend it or ‘invest’ it (be it real investments or just in your bank account) and they have a positive effect; that is they generate more than a dollars worth of economic activity. The best way to think about this is if you spend the dollar, the merchant sells more, can now hire a new employee, and we will in turn make more dollars and spend them; the new employee generates the new value. An economist could spin a better story, but I think you get the gist of it – the one dollar generates more than a dollar of economic activity.

Relative stimulus effect

Having given the background, how do tax cuts fair as stimulus[7]? In general, every dollar of tax cuts generates $1.30 of economic activity compared to a dollar spent on increasing UI benefits would generate $1.62 or increasing food stamps generates $1.74. There is also the issue of WHO to give the cut to. Lower income people spend (out of necessity) every penny they make so a cut in their taxes (thanks to HST we ALL pay taxes even the poorest) will generate the most activity but they latterly also have the least money (the bottom 50% of household control about 3% of Canadian wealth). As you move to the other extreme, the very wealthy often ‘invest’ most of their tax cuts (earning more than they need), so less activity generated but because they make more money a big bang (the top 10% own around 58.2% of the nation’s wealth[8] in the USA its 1% owning 35%). However, in a global world, it is most likely their investments will be ‘trans-national’ or outside ‘our’ economy and thus lost completely to the system – complete fizzle.

Society, of course, is not only extremes but a lopsided slope of ‘everything-in-between’ (note percentages of wealth ownership mentioned earlier) otherwise it would be easy to define tax policy; the trick is to determine both purpose (stimulate consumption, promote manufacturing, decrease inflation) and effectiveness. History has given us lessons to learn from and one a sceptical economist should be able to apply.

<From Episode #88 of Radio Free Thinker>

[1]British Columbia Medical Services Plan Premium Increase Notice
[2]BC April fee increases
[3]Ibid
[4]BC Gov 2010 fee increase
[5]BC Gov tuition increases
[6]Supply-Side Economics Debunked – TYT
[7] Recovery Ac
[8] Inequality in Canada

* By this i mean 15% of $100k = $18k while 15% of roughly the median income, $50k = $7.5k. So, the tax applies the same but the benefit is very unequal.

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The SGU gets it wrong…kinda

Posted by Don McLenaghen on October 30, 2010

I discovered a study about the relative rarity of cancer in ‘ancient’ societies. It was focused on physical evidence from Egypt (mummies and bones) and a review of ‘medical’ text from Egypt, Greece and Rome. I did a review of the article and was going to present it on our Oct 19th show. My take at the time was that it was a measured and well done study. It was forthright in its methodology, made reference to limitations in its assumptions, was limited in its claims and provided a plausible mechanism to explain their results.

As often happened the SGU (Skeptics Guide to the Universe) will a few days later duplicate some of our segments, as they did on this one. I was STUNNED at how wrong they got it. It sounded to me like they only read the media spin (which often spins in the wrong direction) and did not actual read the study. As a good skeptic, I did not want to assume something with checking out the ‘source’ material…as I did with the original study. So I checked out Steve Novella’s blog Neurologica.

Neurologica did not focus on the study (something I do have issues with) but on the extensive interview one of the researched gave on the University of Manchester website. I then checked out the interview and was stunned. It seemed one of the authors of the study did not read their own study. So, it turns out the SGU did get it wrong…kinda…and at least one of the authors of the study(Dr. David) got it very wrong – I still think the study is good. Why?

Straw Man – the SGU got it totally wrong when they stated in the podcast that the study stated that there was NO cancer in the ancient world. This, sadly, coloured the rest of their conversation and led them to disprove something not actually claimed by the study (although to add confusion something claimed by Dr. David). Actually the study pointed out a number of cases where there was physical evidence for cancer and more notably used ancient ‘medical’ text to show that cancer was known and treated (poorly) although rarely cured. The text stated that ‘medicine’ was ineffective and that the most common treatment was surgery or cauterizing the tumour.

The issue with longevity – First, Steve misread (shall I be generous?) and stated the study only involved mummies between 25-50yrs that is wrong. What the study said was the life expectancy was 40-50 for the wealthy and 25-30 for the poor. Actual age of the specimens was rarely mentioned. The SGU and the study noted that there was an issue comparing cancer rates of a population that had a life expectancy of 25-50yr to one that has an expectancy of 70-80yrs. The study addressed this by pointing out that a number of conditions have been diagnosed such atherosclerosis, Paget’s disease of bone and arthritis. Further, comparisons of ‘child’ or ‘early onset’ cancers could be reasonable compared. The SGU rightfully points out that the biggest childhood cancers, leukemia, leaves little to no ‘archaeological evidence’. However Osteosarcoma, one of the top ten childhood cancers is a bone cancer leaving notable evidence. Steve inaccurate states that “there does not appear to be any child mummies in their study”. However the study does make explicit reference to Chilean child mummies. The SGU also seems to imply that NO cancers occur between childhoods and ‘old age’, this is not true.

Causes of Cancer – as is stated earlier, The SGU is not totally off based with their attack. Professor Rosalie David, one of the study’s authors, in an interview on the University of Manchester website, shows a complete lack of understanding of her own study or (as i think the SGU suspects) plans to use the study to make tangential claims. She did state that “There is nothing in the natural environment that can cause cancer” something explicitly contradicted in her own study which stated that “Carcinogenic Environmental factors have been linked to up to 75% of human cancers” meaning that 25% are not linked and that’s assuming all carcinogenic environmental factors are ‘man-made’ which is not true either. For example, Bangladesh is plagues with high concentrations of arsenic in their water due to natural deposits. She weakens here own conclusions by stating that with regards to the ancient cancers “we are not sure what caused them”. The study also points out that “Various malignancies have been reported in non-human primates”; I am unsure how she connects these to ‘modern industrialization’.

One the SGU side, they seem to deny that ‘modern life’, with the dramatic increase in ‘man-induced’ environmental carcinogenic, could possible result in more cancers now than then. We know that chemical pollutions, nuclear bomb testing (in its day) and other factors have caused increase risk of cancer that just did not exist even 300 yrs. ago. Its equivalent to saying (and I am being perhaps too strong here) that electrocutions are about the same now as in ancient times. I think I understand why they are reacting so strongly to this, there are a number of people who claim everything in the ancient days was better or that this proved WiFi causes cancer – that’s nuts. However, I think they have overreacted (at least to the underlying article).

Lack of evidence – Steve says it is “an inherently weak form of evidence on which to base conclusions”. That is valid sometimes but not always. For example, if we had the hypothesis cancer was non-temporally correlated (ie cancer rates have changed little over history) then one would expect a similar number of cases on ancient times as now…that the fact there are dramatically fewer then than now is evidence for a change in prevalence. In fact I would have to ask Steve what evidence would he accept to show that something was worse now than then or visa-versa? I think, in this case, he got this completely wrong. I think, the worst criticism of the study I could find was the lack of numbers. There are a lot of mummies in the world, but it is not directly stated how many are represented in this meta-analysis nor is there any statistical correlation. Bone cancers, for example, are relatively common in children but that still only amounts to 5-10 per million per year. So, if 1000 mummies, we would expect < 1 case…their claim is weakest on the numbers. I would also like to have seen a graduation of evidence. Jumping from ancient Egypt to modern society seems large. If their hypothesis is true, one would expect a gradual increase in cancer rates over time with an explosion in modern times (statistically speaking).

So, I am left a little flat. I think the study was good. However, I think at least one of the authors comments made overstated some claims of the study, contradicted their own study and made comments that were demonstrably false. I think, if the SGU (and more to the point Steve’s entry on Neurologica) was based on the study then they also did a hash of it. However, if you ignore the study and focus on what the authors stated about it and the media spin, their criticisms are more accurate. Irrespective, I liked the study and hated the inaccurate spin that followed it both by the author, the media and the SGU. Better luck next time.

Original article:

http://www.nature.com/nrc/journal/v10/n10/full/nrc2914.html

Interview with Dr. David:

http://www.manchester.ac.uk/aboutus/news/display/?id=6243

Neurologica Blog:

http://theness.com/neurologicablog/?p=2402

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